Data-driven football predictions across Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1 and Champions League.
No football tips published yet. The card goes up each morning, UK time, when there are fixtures to price.
🔒 Pro members get the full football card — all leagues, all confidence levels, with value edge % on every tip
Unlock Pro Tips →Our Dixon-Coles Poisson model is optimised for Premier League fixtures, using team season statistics, home/away attack and defence strength ratings, head-to-head records and live odds data from an aggregated odds feed covering UK bookmakers. Where a specific book offers the best price, it is named on the tip.
There is no minimum edge. A selection is published when it clears a confidence floor and survives a check on how far the model has strayed from the de-vigged market — a model that disagrees violently with the price is usually wrong rather than early. A selection with no edge against the price is not filtered out: our staking sizes it at zero, so it appears as an informational pick rather than an advised bet, and those carry no stake and sit outside the win rate and ROI published on this site.
Champions League football is genuinely harder to price, because a cross-league tie asks how a team's domestic goals translate against opposition it has no record against. Our model handles it the same way it handles a domestic fixture: attack and defence strength built from the Champions League table itself, recent form, rest, absences, and the head-to-head record where two clubs have met at least five times.
It has no separate European module — no knockout-round history, no continental coefficient, no squad-depth rating. That is worth knowing when you read a Champions League tip from us, and it is why the early rounds of a group stage, where the table has little in it, produce lower confidence figures than a fixture in March.
Beyond the Premier League, we cover La Liga (Spain), Bundesliga (Germany), Serie A (Italy), Ligue 1 (France) and Champions League. Each league has its own calibrated attack/defence strength model built from full season statistics.
Tips are available for every match in these competitions throughout the season, with odds from the best available UK-licensed bookmaker at time of publication.
Each football tip comes with an odds figure (the best price our odds feed had at publication, and the book offering it), a confidence percentage (our model's estimated probability of the selection winning), and a value edge percentage (the gap between our probability and what the odds imply).
We recommend using stake recommendations — available to Pro members — to size each bet appropriately based on confidence. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and treat all tips as analysis rather than guaranteed outcomes.